Winter is coming... but it's probably going to be a tame one for Texas, maybe even as warm as the last.
And that's saying something: our previous winter was indeed the warmest on record for Austin (as well as third driest) and the third warmest in San Antonio weather history.
Primarily thanks to developing La Niña conditions in the Paciic Ocean, winter 2017-18 will likely run warmer and drier than normal across the Lone Star State according to the seasonal forecast issued Thursday by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.
For the northern tier of states, the forecast calls for cooler- and wetter-than-normal conditions.
The La Niña phenomenon is tied to cooler-than-normal sea-surface temperatures along the equatorial Pacific.
Since August, buoy data shows temperatures in that region of the Pacific have been dropping and are now close to one full degree Celsius below normal.
An ensemble of computer models points to a peak of what will likely be a weak La Niña in the final days of 2017, then temperatures are forecast to begin warming up again by January 2018 with a return to what could be neutral (or "la nada") conditions by next spring.
NOAA agrees, predicting a 55-65% chance of La Niña conditions from winter through spring.
Stay tuned to 'Weather on the 1s' for updates.